Finland prepares for a weakened AMOC – new research project launched
A study led by the Finnish Meteorological Institute is describing the impact on Finland of a deteriorating Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) for the first time. The Government-funded HIIPUVA project is strengthening the knowledge base in preparation for conditions in which climate tipping points may rapidly disrupt living conditions.
The AMOC is a flow pattern in the Atlantic Ocean that regulates temperatures and precipitation across the globe by transporting warm water northwards and cold water southwards. It includes the familiar Gulf Stream that brings warm water to northern Europe. The AMOC has deteriorated due to global heating in recent decades, and at worst it could collapse with no prospect of recovery.
We know that the impacts of a deteriorating AMOC may include changes in temperature, precipitation and sea level in Finland. At worst, this may mean a fall of several degrees in the average midwinter temperature.
“Scientists have made disturbing predictions of an increasingly likely deterioration in the AMOC as climate change progresses. As the worst-case scenarios would have widespread impacts on Finland, it is important that we study these risks and prepare for them proactively,” explains Minister of the Environment and Climate Sari Multala.
A funding decision of the research unit supporting Government decision-making (VN Tutkiva) has allocated EUR 300,000 to the AMOC tipping point preparation in Finland (HIIPUVA) project coordinated by the Finnish Meteorological Institute. Other partners implementing the project are the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, the Finnish Environment Institute and Natural Resources Institute Finland. The project will continue until the end of 2027.
The HIIPUVA project studies how a weakened AMOC would affect Finland
The HIIPUVA project will provide a scenario-based assessment of how a deteriorating AMOC would affect the Finnish climate, the Baltic Sea, and society in Finland. It will pay particular attention to impacts on agriculture, the energy system and transport, and will investigate risks and needs for preparedness. The project combines climate model simulations, impact assessments and stakeholder collaboration.
“Climate systems do not necessarily change in a steady, predictable way. A better understanding of the impacts of AMOC deterioration will help us prepare in time, enabling decisions that ensure functionality, safety and security of supply in society,” explains Finnish Meteorological Institute Research Professor Aleksi Nummelin.
Applications of information provided by the project will include updating the national risk assessment, the plan for adapting to climate change, and the strategy for security of society. The project will be implemented in collaboration with Finnish and international partners.
Inquiries
Aleksi Nummelin
Research Professor
Finnish Meteorological Institute
tel. +358 45 154 3774
[email protected]
Kaarle Kupiainen
Chair of the project monitoring group, Ministerial Adviser
Ministry of the Environment
tel. +358 29 525 0232
[email protected]
Juuso Kilpinen
Special Adviser to the Minister of the Environment and Climate Change
tel. +358 29 525 0128
[email protected]
